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Welcome to the Clay & Company Blog

Clay & Company is a Houston-based commercial real estate auction, brokerage and investment company serving the needs of governmental agencies, financial institutions, insurance companies, and individuals throughout the State of Texas since 1991.

Our regularly updated blog covers local and national news, events, and happenings affecting Houston commercial real estate.

Monthly Archives: September 2010

CIRE Magazine: Major Drivers in Transactional Funding

Success Stories
It pays to know what lenders want to hear.
By Gary Mozer for
CIRE Magazine

During the past six months, commercial real estate capital has re-entered the market after almost a two-year absence. Capital providers are eager to deploy their funds. They are increasingly inclined to consider speculative leasing, secondary markets, sub-institutional-quality assets, and midmarket sponsors.

However, caution prevails. And after the long dry spell, competition for capital is steep. Thus, any financing that requires capital to leave the fairway must demonstrate a compelling reason for investment. In short, you have to tell a strong story. Capital providers need to know why the deal deserves to be financed.

Furthermore, the current marketplace of capital providers is inefficient. Finding the right source requires diligence, and it pays to know a capital provider’s hot buttons before presenting, especially as appetites are evolving.

Investment Drivers

Capital is generally looking for one or more of the following major drivers in transactional financing.

Quality cash flow with strong credit and a long-term income stream. George Smith Partners secured financing for construction of a medical facility that is 100 percent pre-leased to an investment-grade tenant.

A nonspeculative need. For example, new multifamily construction in a tertiary market was financed based on dramatic undersupply of housing and strong local job growth, as evidenced by long-term residential leasing among local hotels.

Recapitalization to a “new-paradigm” basis. Low-cost basis allows lower rents to steal market share from competitors — even if the market is in equilibrium. An office building was recapitalized at a reduced-cost basis, allowing the sponsor to pro forma rents below market and thereby retain and attract tenants.

Repayment guaranty to a large, low-leverage, and highly liquid balance sheet. GSP secured financing for a class B industrial facility with substantial lease roll and noncredit tenants, premised on the lender’s comfort with the sponsor as a source of repayment.

Happy Endings

There are two important caveats to this optimistic outlook. First, the old financing paradigm of high-leverage, nonrecourse capital at low rates no longer exists. Assets are being de-levered. Refinancing debt typically demands a new cash contribution. Recapitalizing mezzanine or equity typically demands a write-down or subordinated interest. Second, any weakness in the sponsor, real estate, or market must be offset by another factor. Below, these types of risk mitigation measures are highlighted using the aforementioned examples.

Medical facility. Special-purpose construction with a relatively ordinary sponsor balance sheet was acceptable because the cash flow upon completion was secure. GSP arranged a loan at 75 percent of cost with a 5.25 percent starting rate.

Multifamily construction. New construction in a tertiary market was acceptable because of a dramatic imbalance in supply and demand and a strong sponsor signing recourse. The buyer’s financing was a three-year, nonrecourse loan at a 4.5 percent starting rate, with a 1 percent origination fee and 1 percent exit fee on a 65 percent advance.

Class C asset. Located in a secondary market with significant rollover, this industrial transaction succeeded based on a competitive advantage in cost basis. Although the loan was nonrecourse, the institutional sponsor had a history of delivering on its business plan and was known to be a good operator. In addition, the property was meeting a significant need in the market, so it was highly likely that all tenants would renew as there was no other product in the market. GSP arranged 65 percent loan-to-value debt for five years at 5.5 percent.

Class B industrial. Finally, a B-quality industrial facility with substantial lease roll and noncredit tenants succeeded premised on the sponsor’s guaranty. The financing was 65 percent LTV floating for five years with a 4 percent starting rate.

Clearly, if you have the right story — and you know how to tell it — you can find capital in this slow-moving market. Competition is fierce and capital providers can afford to be choosy. You may have to talk to 50 people before you find one who wants to invest, but all you need is one who is willing to listen and take action.

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Industry Trends

Industry Trends from CCIM

Hospitality — Hampered by lack of construction financing, new hotel supply is projected at 1.7 percent for 2010 and 1.3 percent annually for 2011 and 2012, according to Lodging Econometrics. The modest increases will aid hospitality’s recovery, allowing rents to rise as demand increases with the improving economy.

Industrial — Net demand for warehouse and flex space registered at 6 million sf in 2Q10, the first increase since 4Q08, says Cassidy Turley. Thirty-five of 67 major metros registered positive demand, compared with only 11 markets in 1Q10.

Multifamily — The number of occupied apartments increased by 215,000 units in the first half of 2010, almost double the increase of 110,000 units for all of 2009, according to MPF Research.

Office — Off-campus urgent care and community clinics will represent a larger portion of medical office development in the coming decade as hospitals look for more cost-effective ways to handle routine patient care, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s 2010 Medical Office Building Investor Survey.

Retail — Excluding mega stores such as Wal-Mart and Target, retailers plan to open 65,291 stores over the next 24 months, according to RBC Capital Markets and Retail Lease Trac data. Quiznos, Dollar General, Anytime Fitness, and Five Guys Famous Burgers plan to add the most new outlets.

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Weekly Wrap Up: September 24, 2010

In case you missed it:

REDNews Market Reports: Surge in Loan Workouts is Healthy Sign for Distressed Real Estate

It’s officially fall. Some ideas of how to enjoy it:

Central Market Couples Cooking Class: Fall Harvest
Friday, September 24, 2010
Hands-On Central Market Cooking School where you will cook a fall harvest dinner including Cherrywood Smoked Pork Chops with Port Cherries, Smoked Garlic Mashed Potatoes with Caramelized Leeks, Spinach Salad with Blue Cheese, Apples, Spiced Caramelized Pecans & Spago House Dressing, and Almond Cake with Coffee Cream & Honey Roasted Pears.

Houston Museum District Day
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Enjoy a free day in the Houston Museum District on Saturday, September 25 from 10 AM to 5 PM. Board a free shuttle bus at any of the 17 participating museums offering free general admission.

Sunday Concert Series at Haak Winery
Sunday, September 26, 2010 and Ongoing
Bring your own wine glass  and a lawn chair and enjoy live music, food, and premium Texas wines.

Cowboys v. Texans
Sunday, September 26 at 12:00 PM
Let’s make it 3-0

Movies Houstonians Love at the MFAH
Tuesday, September 28
The sixth season of this popular series has a dynamic launch on September 28 with Mayor Annise Parker’s Favorite Film The Wizard of Oz.

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REDNews Market Reports: Surge in Loan Workouts is Healthy Sign for Distressed Real Estate

From REDNews Market Reports:

SOURCE: Matt Hudgins, NREI Contributor

The worst of the debt crisis may be over for the commercial real estate industry. Several measures suggest that the pace of loans newly classified as delinquent, in default or foreclosure has slowed and lenders are gaining ground in their efforts to resolve problem debts.

Some $6.3 billion in U.S. commercial real estate loans fell into distress in June, the smallest monthly increase since October 2008, according to New York-based Real Capital Analytics (RCA), which tracks loans on commercial real estate properties valued at $5 million or more.

In fact, the $56.8 billion in loans that moved into special servicing or delinquency in the first half of 2010 marked a 24% decrease from the distress that accumulated in the first half of 2009.

Lenders and special servicers resolved $14.6 billion in troubled commercial real estate loans during the first half of 2010, up 272% from $3.8 billion during the first half of 2009.

Resolution entails a 100% recovery rate or repayment of the loan amount, as opposed to a loan modification, which may bring a partial recovery through recapitalization, an extension or other changes that leave the lender exposed to the collateral.

The dollar volume of loan modifications also more than doubled to $15.6 billion, bringing total workouts to $30.2 billion, equivalent to the workout volume for all of 2009.

“This is the first clear evidence we’ve been able to gather that lenders are starting to resolve their troubled issues,” says Dan Fasulo, managing director at RCA.

Stabilized, core assets in primary markets have recovered much of the market value lost since the onset of the credit crisis and recession, Fasulo says. That is making it easier for lenders and borrowers to restructure debt or bring in equity partners to resolve loans, he says.

For example, an office tower at 333 Market St. in San Francisco sold in June for approximately $333 million, about 5% less than the $370 million it traded for in 2006.

In Chicago, a 60-story office tower at 300 North LaSalle traded for $655 million this month. The capitalization rate on the deal was close to 6%.

“That’s pricing we haven’t seen since close to the height of the market,” Fasulo says. “Clearly, we’ve seen a situation develop where owners that may have been under water 12 months ago may now be in the black again.”

The recovery in property values is limited so far to stabilized assets in markets and locations highly sought after by investors, Fasulo emphasizes. Property values remain depressed for assets out of favor with investors, including undeveloped land or buildings with high vacancy rates.

Recovery rates vary

Resolutions accounted for 48% of all workouts in the first two quarters this year, up from 43% of workouts a year ago. Recovery rates are uneven across lender types.

Regional and local banks recovered just 64% of the unpaid loan balance in their workouts during the first half of 2010, for example, compared with recovery rates of 71% for national banks and 77% for international banks.

The poorer performance of regional and local banks is due in part to a heavier concentration of construction loans on those balance sheets, according to RCA.

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicers had the lowest recovery rate at 63%. In fact, CMBS lags other forms of commercial real estate debt by volume of workouts.

Securitized loans accounted for 64% of new distress by dollar volume in the first half of the year but only 45% of workouts, according to RCA.

The low recovery rate in CMBS stems in part from a preference among special servicers to extend loans in hopes of more favorable market conditions down the road rather than liquidate debt.

Special servicers restructured $9.8 billion in delinquent loans in the first half of 2010, compared with just $3 billion in loan resolutions, according to RCA.

Hopeful signs for CMBS

Even so, there are signs that CMBS special servicers are making headway to address the level of distress. For one, the CMBS delinquency rate is slowing in its ascent after nearly a year of steady monthly increases on loans 30 days or more past due, in foreclosure, or taken back by lenders as real estate owned.

July’s all-time-high delinquency rate of 8.71% marked a gain of just 12 basis points from the previous month’s rate, according to Trepp LLC, a New York-based commercial real estate data and analytics firm. The rate climbed only 17 basis points in June.

June and July’s increases pale in comparison with the previous 10 months, when the delinquency rate jumped an average of 39 basis points each month, says Paul Mancuso, vice president of Trepp.

“Although the volume of distress in the CMBS market remains at historic levels,” he says, “the last two months give hope that perhaps the darkest days for the CMBS market are behind us.”

Nearly $3.2 billion in conduit loans were referred to special servicers in each of the first five months of 2010 before tapering to $140 million in June and $500,000 in July, according to Trepp.

Mancuso attributes the slower growth in CMBS delinquencies in part to increased loan modifications. In fact, the $12.1 billion in CMBS loan modifications that Trepp tracked in the first half of 2010 exceeds the $9.2 billion total for modifications in 2008 through 2009.

Fasulo of RCA acknowledges that lenders and CMBS special servicers still have most of their work ahead of them when it comes to resolving the current volume of distressed debt, but he is encouraged by this summer’s progress in the sector.

“Do they still have a long ways to go? Sure, especially the regional and local banks,” he says. “But incremental improvement is a positive sign for the marketplace.”

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Weekly Wrap Up: September 17, 2010

In case you missed it:

Consumer Spending Survey: Texas Downturn had an Upside 

Where to go this weekend:

Tex-Mex Soups and Stews Cooking Class at Sylvia’s Enchilada Kitchen
Saturday, September 18, 12:30 – 3:30 pm
Sylvia Casares teaches Carne Guisada, Caldo de Res, Fideo, and Tortilla Soup. All classes include a full meal and dessert and your choice of beverages.

Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds: Post-Game Concert with Robert Earl Keen
Saturday, September 18
Texas country music legend Robert Earl Keen will be live in concert at Minute Maid Park after the Astros host the Cincinnati Reds at 6:05 PM. Your game ticket is also your ticket to the post-game concert and seating for the show will be general admission. The concert stage will be located at third base facing the visitor’s dugout.

Houston Astros Dog Day at Minute Maid Park
Sunday, September 19
Bring man’s best friend to Houston Astros Dog Day at Minute Maid Park on Sunday, September 19th and see your Houston Astros take on the Cincinnati Reds at 1:05 p.m.

Me. My. Self. Eye. Modern and Contemporary Self-Portraits from the MFAH Department of Prints and Drawings
August 4 – September 19, 2010
Me. My. Self. Eye. features modern and contemporary self-portraits from the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston collection of prints and drawings. This engaging exhibition illustrates how artists fuse their physical likenesses with their artistic personas to shape the viewers’ perception.

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Consumer Spending Survey: Texas Downturn had an Upside

  • A Real Estate Center research study found that the larger the share of housing expenditures in consumers’ budgets, the more home prices in their region fell since 2007. The Center’s analysis of consumer spending data explains why the Texas housing market has fared far better than other states that have suffered plummeting home values and rising foreclosure rates. More importantly, the study suggests why the state’s economy is expected to continue to do better than the rest of the U.S. economy.
  • When expenditures in a particular category in the consumer’s budget take larger and larger shares of total expenses, consumers look for less expensive substitutes. This can lower demand for more expensive goods and services, leading to lower prices for those goods and services. For example, if the price of beef gets too high, people eat more chicken. Consumers in housing markets have a number of options. The most important choice is whether to rent or buy.consumerexpenditureschart
  • The two Texas metros did not have large increases in their expenditure shares for shelter from 1987 to 2008. Houston’s share rose by 1 percent while Dallas’ share increased by 2.2 percent. Percent change in median home values sold from 2007 to 2009 according to the National Association of Realtors is shown in the table. Houston is the only metro in the study to post home price appreciation during the nationwide home price correction. Dallas had the smallest rate of home price decline.
  • Home price changes have expenditure effects and wealth effects. On the demand side, lower housing costs allow consumers to spend more on nonhousing goods and services, leading to higher regional economic growth rates. More affordable housing also can attract more immigrants to a region, leading to higher population growth rates, a larger labor force and more demand for goods and services. On the supply side, lower costs and prices of real estate properties can significantly increase profitability of more economic activities, leading to more investments in a region and higher economic growth rates.
  • Texans pay a smaller portion of their incomes on housing than those in other states. A Center research study based on consumer spending data for major U.S. metropolitan areas found that the larger the share of their budgets consumers pay for shelter costs, the more home prices in their regions have fallen since 2007. Study results suggest why Texas has suffered less than other states during the downturn, and why continuing home price declines are unlikely in the state.

Full article here.

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Weekly Wrap Up: September 10, 2010

What’s going on in the Bayou City this weekend?

“Greetings from Houston: Vintage Postcard Views of the City”
July 13-November 14
A pictorial history of Houston and it’s history is captured in “Greetings from Houston: Vintage Postcard Views of the City.” The exhibit shows not only Houston’s changing skyline but the similarities in the sentiments expressed in the senders’ messages (let’s just say lots of people mentioned the weather). Included with the cards are items related to the scenes shown, such as a banner from Camp Logan and souvenir dishes from the Rice Hotel.

Ex-CRAB-aganza – Brennan’s of Houston
September 7-21
A two-week celebration of Blue Crab featuring a three-course menu by Chef Trace at the updated Brennan’s of Houston.

Colts v. Texans
Sunday, September 13 at 12:00 PM
Season Opener against the defending AFC champs

“Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
10 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily
“Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” is an all-new, original George Lucas film interactive exhibit that allows fans to step into action scenes from the films. The fun only lasts through Through September 19.

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Weekly Wrap Up: September 2, 2010

This week’s Chronicle Transactions

Brewmasters International Beer Festival
September 3-6, 2010
A Labor Day weekend Beer extravaganza with hundreds of beers, musical entertainment, food, and educational seminars on how to brew your own. Let your taste buds get carried away with specialty beers from around the world. Utilizing the beautiful bayside oasis of the Moody Garden grounds & conference center, beer enthusiasts gather to grab a mug, take a chug, and enjoy the ultimate beer sampling experience.

College Football Opening Weekend

Texas State at University of Houston
Saturday, Sept. 4th at 7 p.m.
Roberston Stadium

University of Texas at Rice
Saturday, Sept. 4th at 7 p.m.
Reliant Stadium

Broadway Rocks!
Friday, September 3, 2010 at 8pm
The Houston Symphony performs selections from the latest generation of Broadway Musicals like The Lion King, Rent, Wicked and Mamma Mia!

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Net Lease Assets

We have covered triple-net lease investments before and are still actively searching for net-leased properties, both new construction leases and existing leases. This article from the July/August 2010 issue of Real Estate Forum gives a rundown on the two options.

July-August 2010

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