Clay & Company » A Texas Commercial Real Estate Blog

12 PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 via Real Estate Bisnow Houston

1. HOTELS IMPROVE

Performance in the hospitality industry is on the up, according to Smith Travel Research and PKF Hospitality Research. Smith reports that Houston is doing particularly well; our hotels rank second in the US (behind Nashville) for year-over-year gain in room demand.

2. WESTCHASE RISES

With at least two spec office buildings slated to break ground in 2012, Westchase may just be the hottest submarket this year. Westchase District’s Sherry Fox tells us leasing volume in the submarket had topped 1M SF by Q3 ’11, well ahead of 2010 numbers. That put occupancy at 86.7% by the end of Q3, and Sherry says very big blocks are available.

3. FUNDS ARE UNPOPULAR

Ernst & Young American RE sector leader Mike Straneva (we snapped him at an E&Y/Baker Botts event in December to the right of Archstone’s Neil Bown and HFF’s Jody Thornton) says the recession taught people that they need to know who all investors are in a deal. That said, funds that do exist are attracted to RE because of returns.

4. CMBS IMPROVES, BUT IS THAT ENOUGH?

Commercial Mortgage Backed Security values will be on the rise this year: Wells Fargo Securities expects $25B, and Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS AG predict as much as $45B issued in 2012. But Andrews Myers CRE attorney Patrick Hayes has less confidence. Although Patrick has seen a resurgence of CMBS loans, he cautions borrowers that underwriting is tough to the point of being unreasonable. He suggests borrowers avoid that route unless they’re confident their properties can withstand the underwriting process.

5. INVESTORS COME TO CRE

Texas A&M Real Estate Center chief economist Mark Dotzour thinks US stocks and CRE broken deals are the most undervalued assets in the country right now. People are bound to catch on soon, making them the next investment trend.

6. AND TEXAS IN PARTICULAR

Houston and Dallas are among the top CRE hot spots (NY and DC are the others) generating investor interest, says Younan Properties chairman/CEO Zaya Younan. Foreign investors (including the Chinese and Europeans) only want to talk Texas because of its fast-growing, strong fundamentals.

7. DRIVING AUSTIN

A problem everywhere: traffic congestion. For Austin and San Antonio, the problem compounds with 70% of the NAFTA truck traffic making its way up I-35. But, that also means opportunities, too, according to the experts at the Bisnow Future of the I-35 Corridor in Austin yesterday. Only 80 miles apart, the two major metro areas may one day mesh into one greater MSA with a population of about four million. Major universities, international airports, and the NAFTA superhighway are a recipe for growth between the two cities.

7. OFFICE ABSORPTION INCREASES

Houston’s office leasing market fundamentals improved remarkably last year, according to PMRG VP of research Ariel Guerrero. Office product absorbed 3.2M SF, the most since ’08. Look for a continued shift to a landlord-favorable market as rents rise and quality space options diminish.

8. CLASS-A WILL DO EVEN BETTER

Of the 3.2M SF Houston absorbed last year, 2.4M SF was Class-A.

9. HEALTHCARE’S ABOUT CLASS-B

Marcus & Millichap’s Tanner McGraw tells us investors in the healthcare space are paying more attention to Class-B product. According to Marcus & Millichap’s October report, statewide MOB transaction velocity increased 28% from the same period in 2010. Activity accelerated dramatically for buildings below 5,000 SF, and lower-quality properties were the lion’s share of deals. Tanner is also seeing more health systems building and acquiring off-campus assets through physician practice acquisitions.

10. SPECIALTY GROCERS COME TO MARKET

The retail market in 2011 was dominated by HEB and Walmart, but look for specialty stores to creep into Houston in 2012. Transwestern’s Nick Hernandez says we’ll see Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Sprouts, and others open their first Houston stores this year. And here’s two for the price of one: Nick also says we can expect retail landlords to squeeze more value out of existing centers by adding pad sites in parking lots or tacking on small buildings for additional SF.

11. SELECTED CONSTRUCTION GAINS

Expect modest gains in construction this year, according to Andrews Myers construction attorney Ben Westcott. He expects construction to increase in infrastructure, municipal, education-driven, and multifamily projects. The latter three project types will see a bump from the population spread across our fair city. This is leading to more construction jobs: The Labor Department reports that 9,000 were added in November and 17,000 in December. Plus, construction spending increased over three of the last four months of 2011.

12. INDUSTRIAL STAYS HOT

Many of the spec developments under way will deliver this year, most have significant preleasing. And that means that concessions are burning off. The team predicts they’ll become the exception rather than the rule, a nice change for landlords from the previous three years. The north submarket will be the hottest, possibly running the risk of being overbuilt.

Each number has been summarized. See more on each category HERE.

Last Friday, the CCIM Gulf Coast Chapter held the 18th Annual CRE Forecast Competition. Here Clay & Company has summarized the days lectures for you.

Dr. Mark Dotzour, Chief Economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, opened the competition with a report on the state of the national economy giving a positive outlook for the commercial real estate industry. Below are some of his key points.

• Every metro area in Texas is experiencing positive job growth this month and the private sector is ready to get back to work. Government layoffs are inevitable in the coming years, but the private sector’s willingness to hire should offset this.

• Banks need to clear their shadow inventory to bring normal values back to CRE. Thorough auditing and foreclosures of bank’s underperforming assets will help the nation in the long run. “Extend and pretend” practices need to stop. While it is unfortunate that many banks will go out of business, Dotzour sees new banks quickly taking their place.

• Look for Class A properties in large gateway cities to perform well; however, all other assets seem to be frozen. This is causing a “double bubble” effect in certain cities and inflated prices in Washington, New York, and San Francisco.

• In closing Dotzour stressed how important it is that the government show confidence this year and that banks stop solely buying treasuries.

Other area real estate experts were asked their opinions on the industrial, land, retail, office, and apartment sectors. Below we’ve broken down their predictions:

Industrial:

• Times are good for tenants with economical rental rates available; but with low vacancies and very little new construction, potential tenants are having a hard time finding the right property, especially on the north and west sides of town where very few crane-served buildings are on the market.

• Industrial cap rates are coming down: expect to see quality assets in the 7.5-8.5 cap range.

Land:

• Insiders predict midtown Houston land prices to remain high at $45-55/SF. Multi-family developers are purchasing land; currently there are 10 very large land deals in the Houston area set for apartment development, 6 of those inside the 610 loop.

• As housing is concerned, there’s only a 4-5 month land supply of quality lots in Houston.

• Interesting facts: Walmart paid $50/SF for the land between Washington Avenue and I-10, part of the new Washington Heights development by Ainbinder. Kroger recently paid $49/SF for the land to build their new store on Studemont.

Office:

• Insiders predict Class A, downtown office space will command rental rates between $34- $37/SF and sales will average $200-230/SF.

• Job growth was repeatedly stressed as the saving grace for the industry, and experts expect corporate management to finally make hiring decisions this year.

• Large nationwide firms perceive Houston to have office rents at below market rates, a favorable outlook for the city.

• To the investors out there: Don’t be looking for steals, because you won’t find any. Expect to pay market prices.

Retail:

• Service-oriented retail will weather this recession stronger than solely merchandize-driven stores because internet sales are hurting brick-and-mortar companies harder than you’d expect. Given this fact, companies looking to open additional stores need to tap into the opportunites that internet sales provide.

• Zip codes and shipping addresses of current customers are an invaluable asset for expanding chains.

• Similar to the industrial markets, rental rates will increase in 2011 with quality space hard to find.

• “Lifestyle” retail centers with the “right” tenant mix and well-conceived parking garages will see a comeback after the recessionary years; however, population densities are key to their success.

• Investors best bets: size matters, small grocery-anchored centers with stable tenants.

Apartments:

• Big life insurance companies will be prolific lenders in the 2011 multi-family markets but expect to pony up at least 60% equity for such deals.

• We should expect big buys from large institutional investors in core, inner-city markets and for smaller, private companies to acquire apartments in the suburbs.

• Panelists forecast a $1.25/SF rental rate in Class A properties with average market occupancy rates to hover near 88%.

13,092 SF, one-story, office-warehouse. Warehouse has 14-foot clear height and grade level loading docks. Building includes 1,000 square feet of office space. Property previously housed a gate and fence manufacturing company. Well-suited for light manufacturing or industrial. Located in an excellent area of Missouri City. Good visibility and accessibility to major thoroughfares and adjacent to rail line offering potential for rail service or spur. Priced well-below replacement value. Great opportunity on bank foreclosure!

More information here.

Industry Trends from CCIM

Hospitality — Hampered by lack of construction financing, new hotel supply is projected at 1.7 percent for 2010 and 1.3 percent annually for 2011 and 2012, according to Lodging Econometrics. The modest increases will aid hospitality’s recovery, allowing rents to rise as demand increases with the improving economy.

Industrial — Net demand for warehouse and flex space registered at 6 million sf in 2Q10, the first increase since 4Q08, says Cassidy Turley. Thirty-five of 67 major metros registered positive demand, compared with only 11 markets in 1Q10.

Multifamily — The number of occupied apartments increased by 215,000 units in the first half of 2010, almost double the increase of 110,000 units for all of 2009, according to MPF Research.

Office — Off-campus urgent care and community clinics will represent a larger portion of medical office development in the coming decade as hospitals look for more cost-effective ways to handle routine patient care, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s 2010 Medical Office Building Investor Survey.

Retail — Excluding mega stores such as Wal-Mart and Target, retailers plan to open 65,291 stores over the next 24 months, according to RBC Capital Markets and Retail Lease Trac data. Quiznos, Dollar General, Anytime Fitness, and Five Guys Famous Burgers plan to add the most new outlets.

Click flyer to enlarge or here for more information.